This project will compare numerical and empirical model predictions of coastal flooding at representative military facilities, with the goal of identifying the best practice for any facility. Unlike previous efforts, this project will consider a suite of open-source numerical models, which include all of the relevant physics that contribute to total water levels, such as sea level rise, tides, wind-induced surge, wave runup, and infragravity motions. Total water levels will be predicted for selected tropical cyclones and storm events with varying tracks and intensities, to represent the full range of possible forcings at each location. Locations include facilities on the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts and in the Pacific Ocean to represent the full range of coastal geographies. Model performance will be compared with respect to inundation depths, timing and duration of flooding at each installation, as well as computational costs. This comparative assessment will inform the use of the most appropriate model in terms of resolved physics and computational effort for predictions of total water levels at any facility, thus enhancing military installation readiness and resilience, in direct support of DoD and ESTCP priorities.

JA Puleo, JC Dietrich, J Figlus, K Nederhoff, F Shi, SM Smallegan, CD Storlazzi, A van Dongeren. “Comparative assessment of total water levels for coastal military facility readiness and resilience using numerical models.” Department of Defense, Environmental Security Technology Certificate Program, 2022/04/13 to 2026/04/12, $2,177,000 (Dietrich: $346,000).