Emulator for Eroded Beach and Dune Profiles due to Storms

Dunes and beaches are vulnerable to erosion during storm events. Numerical models can predict beach response to storms with fidelity, but their computational costs, the domain-specific knowledge necessary to use them, and the wide range of potential future storm and beach conditions can hinder their use in forecasting storm erosion for short- and long-term horizons. We develop an emulator, which is an efficient predictive model that behaves like a numerical model, to predict the morphologic response of the subaerial beach to storms. Specific emphasis is placed on providing antecedent beach states as an input to the emulator and predicting the post-storm profile shape. Training data include beach profiles at multiple stages in a nourishment life cycle to assess if such a framework can be applied in locations that nourish as a coastal defense policy. Development and application of the emulator is focused on Nags Head, North Carolina, which nourishes its beaches to mitigate hazards of storm waves, flooding, and erosion. A high-fidelity, process-based morphodynamic model is used to train the emulator with 1250 scenarios of sea-storms and beach profiles. The post-storm beach state is emulated with a parameterized power-law function fit to the eroded portion of the subaerial profile. When the emulator was tested for a sequence of real storms from 2019, the eroded beach profiles were predicted with a skill score of 0.66. This emulator is promising for future efforts to predict storm-induced beach erosion in hazard warnings or adaptation studies.

A Gharagozlou, DL Anderson, JF Gorski, JC Dietrich (2022). “Emulator for Eroded Beach and Dune Profiles due to Storms.” Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 127(8), e2022JF006620, DOI: 10.1029/2022JF006620.

Alireza and Carter are NCSU Graduates

The CCHT celebrated the graduations of Alireza Gharagozlou and Carter Howe!

Alireza is now a coastal engineer with Taylor Engineering, Inc., and Carter will start his MS studies at Oregon State University. We also celebrated the graduation of Vega Sproul, who was an intern at the Coastal Studies Institute and then an undergraduate researcher with Dr. Beth Sciaudone. We are extremely proud of them!

From left to right: Alireza Gharagozlou, Casey Dietrich, Carter Howe, and Vega Sproul celebrate graduation.

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Poster: Spring 2022 Conferences

JF Gorski, JC Dietrich, RA Luettich, MV Bilskie, D Passeri, RC Mickey. “Toward deterministic, dynamic model forecasts of storm-driven erosion.” 2022 Ocean Sciences Meeting, Virtual Meeting, 2 March 2022.

JF Gorski, JC Dietrich, RA Luettich, MV Bilskie, D Passeri, RC Mickey. “Toward deterministic, dynamic model forecasts of storm-driven erosion.” Environmental, Water Resources, and Coastal Engineering Research Symposium, North Carolina State University, 4 March 2022.

Toward deterministic, dynamic forecasts of storm-driven erosion

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Virtual Conference: 2022 Ocean Sciences Meeting

News: Jessica Gorski Featured in Lenovo Video

2021/11/15 – Intel + Lenovo
Coastal Computing

Our research into real-time erosion predictions using XBeach was featured in a recent video by Lenovo and CNN. Jessica Gorski describes how we are exploring the use of 1D transect models to predict erosion during storms.

Lenovo provides hardware and support for the HPC services at NC State. The video was produced as branded content for CNN, and it was featured on the CNN web site and social media.

The video required two days of shooting with a team of directors, photographers, audio specialists, and production assistants. Click below to see photos of the production.

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