Category Archives: DOD ESTCP 2022-2026
Performance of Parametric, Physics-Based, and Blended Approaches for Hurricane Atmospheric Forcing in Storm Surge, Wave, and Flood Modelling
The accuracy of atmospheric forcing is a critical component for total water level (TWL) prediction and coastal flood management during hurricanes. In this study, three classes of atmospheric inputs, parametric (Holland Model; HM), physics-based models (ECMWF-ERA5, Global Forecast System (GFS), and North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM)), and blended (HM+Physics-based), were evaluated during Hurricane Michael (October 2018) in the northeast Gulf of America (GoA). Simulations with and without wave coupling were carried out using Delft3D FM to quantify the contribution of wave-induced forces to TWL and flooding at Tyndall Air Force Base (TAFB) and Mexico Beach. HM captures the hurricane core winds, but underpredicts the far-field winds, whereas the physics-based models underestimate winds >20 m/s by over 50%. Blended forcing rectifies these biases with a decreased normalized root-mean-square error in TWL to as low as 0.05, with NAM-based blending outperforming ERA5- and GFS-based approaches due to a finer (∼12 km) spatial resolution. The physics-based models underpredicted the peak significant wave height (SWH), while the HM model overpredicted peak and underpredicted smaller SWHs. The blended models balanced these errors, enabling Delft3D FM (D-Waves) to reproduce large and small SWHs and to capture the 1D/2D spectra observed west of the hurricane track, with minor energy bias linked to phase shift. Overall, blending high-resolution physics-based with parametric core winds improves surge-wave prediction accuracy. While spatial resolution primarily controls blending skill, efficiency is region-dependent and event-specific. The necessity of blending remains sensitive to the nonlinear interaction between storm intensity, size, track, and geographic location.
Conference: ICCE 2026
News: Winners at CCEE 3MT
2026/04/22 – NCSU Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering
Coastal Engineering Student Takes Home 1st Place Prize at 3MT Competition
Coastal Engineering Student Takes Home 1st Place Prize at 3MT Competition
“The work of civil, construction, and environmental engineers impacts communities, and part of the education students receive here is to ensure they are prepared to communicate effectively with stakeholders they will encounter in their careers,” Kittle Autry said.
As for advice to next year’s participants, Lott said to simply have fun with it.
“This has nothing to do with pressure,” Lott said. “It’s a way to step out of your normal day to day and get a different kind of experience.”
Posters: EWC Symposium 2026
Spatial and temporal controls within a coupled spectral wave and circulation model.
Community-Informed modeling of storm surge adaptations on barrier islands.
Baroclinic 3D modeling of circulation patterns in the Pamlico-Albemarle Sound System
Identifying the Extreme Scenario of Storm Tides from Tropical Cyclones in Coastal Communities.
Proposal Defense: Jenero Knowles
Ranges of Peak Storm Tides Between Open‐Coast and Bay Locations
Storm tides — the combination of tides and storm surge — cause flooding in coastal regions, often with differences in magnitudes between the open coast and locations within water bodies like bays and estuaries. Previous studies have shown that storm surge is sensitive to the storm’s wind intensity, speed, and track; the coast’s geometry and relative position to the storm; and also to nonlinear interactions with tides. These sensitivities have been documented at either open coast or bay locations, but without comparing or quantifying the differences in behavior between them, even though these differences may have implications for risk management. This study examines the range of peak storm tides within the Lower Chesapeake Bay, which has vulnerable communities at the open coast, like Virginia Beach, and inside the bay near the James River, like Hampton and Norfolk. A high‐resolution model was developed for the region and validated against observations of water levels during Hurricane Irene in 2011. Storm parameters were perturbed to analyze the variation in storm tide ranges. It was found that the range of possible storm tides was greater at bay locations than at the open coast, by as much as 47%. This higher variability at the bay locations was due to sensitivities to storm parameters like the wind intensity and storm tracks, which led to storm tide peaks outside of the interquartile range. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the uncertainty in storm forecasts concerning future possible impacts in complex coastal regions.