In this dissertation, first a morphodynamic model is used to explore the effects of Isabel (2003) on the NC Outer Banks, with the focus on a large domain that covers 30 km of the barrier island from Rodanthe to Avon. It is hypothesized that the model can be coarsened and expanded to a large domain while preserving accuracy. Model predictions for dune erosion and overwash are in good agreement with post-storm observations. Sensitivity studies show that the model accuracy is less sensitive to the alongshore resolution of the mesh. Then, the topographic elevation changes are upscaled to a region-scale flooding model to allow overwash and inundation behind the dunes. The loose coupling of these process-based models improves the flooding predictions in region-scale model significantly.

Then, a more complex case of beaching and its impacts on larger-scale circulations are explored. Isabel (2003) breached the barrier island near the town of Hatteras and formed three channels connecting the ocean to the sound. Two-way coupling of high-resolution numerical models for coastal erosion and flooding is implemented to study the temporal and spatial evolution of the breach and its contribution to the hydrodynamics in the sound. It is hypothesized that the channels were formed due to the combined effects of ocean-side dune erosion and lagoon-side elevated water levels. The model shows that the flow from the sound to the ocean has an important role in deepening the breached channels. The morphodynamic model can predict the initiation and approximate location of the breach. However, it failed to accurately capture the channels’ depths. Several flooding scenarios are considered to implement the ground surface changes in the flooding model. The evolving breach can affect the timing and extent of flow into the lagoon. The model results show that the breach has region-scale effects on flooding that extend about 10 km into the lagoon.

Finally, the erosion of nourished beaches subjected to multiple storms is investigated. Beach nourishment provides a buffer during extreme events in the short-termbut has a finite lifespan as the beach responds to subsequent storms. Numerical models are widely used to predict the beach morphodynamics, however, they are computationally expensive. In this research, a surrogate model is developed by coupling deterministic and probabilistic models to improve the computational efficiency and to include the randomness of possible future scenarios. A large data set of storm data and beach profiles is used to create a library of thousands of hypothetical scenarios to train the surrogate model. It is hypothesized that adding the beach profile variability in the analysis can improve the model in the sense that it can be applied to any beach state. The results show that predicted erosion volume by the surrogate model is very close to the numerical model predictions. The model produced the results in a few seconds which shows a significant improvement in computational time compared to numerical models.

This research has the potential to improve the prediction of storm-driven erosion, overwash, inundation and breaching. The loose coupling of hydro- and morphodynamic models allows for better predictions of storm-driven flooding into previously protected areas, such as coastal communities and back-barrier regions. The use of observed beach profiles in the development of a surrogate model can improve its predictions of nourishment response to single and successive storms. These better predictions can enable better planning and design for mitigation of future hazards.

A Gharagozlou (2021). “Coupling of Deterministic and Probabilistic Models for Prediction of Storm-Driven Erosion on Barrier Islands,” North Carolina State University.